Moisture will be limited again today with the best chance of storms over the northern and western high terrain. The Northern Mountains will see the most storm activity, with a few storms also developing in the Gila. Outside of these locations, only isolated storms will be possible. Any storms that do develop will move slowly, leading to localized flash flooding.
Moisture gets recharged across the state Tuesday in the form of a back door cold front. The front will reach the Rio Grande Valley by the afternoon, allowing for showers and storms to form with daytime heating. Meanwhile, moisture will creep into the west from the south.
The area of high pressure that’s been sitting to our north and west over the weekend will slowly shift eastward during the week. By the weekend, it should shift far enough east to allow the traditional monsoon flow to setup across the state. While the high shifts, we will recycle the moisture left by the front for the latter part of the workweek.